Arab Finance: Egypt is expected to add around 2 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2026, making it Africa’s second-largest market for new installations after South Africa, according to a report highlighted by the Egyptian Cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC).

The report, titled “The Take-Off in African Solar That Official Statistics Can’t Yet See,” was published by global energy think tank Ember in collaboration with the African Tech Futures Lab (ATFL). It projects Egypt’s annual solar additions will rise by 176% in 2026.

Across Africa, solar capacity additions are forecast to reach approximately 17 GW this year, marking a 45% increase from 2025. This follows annual growth of 51% in 2025 and 25% in 2024.

The projected installations are equivalent to adding about 47 megawatts (MW), or approximately 100,000 solar panels, every day throughout 2026. Thirty-six of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to register record additions, with annual growth exceeding 100% in 19 markets.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is projected to record the continent’s highest growth rate at 544%, followed by Zimbabwe at 282%, Egypt at 176%, and Zambia at 117%.

By installed capacity, South Africa is expected to lead with additions of around 3.3 GW, followed by Egypt with approximately 2 GW. Nigeria and the DRC are each projected to add about 1.7 GW.

The expansion comes as Chinese solar panel exports to Africa continue to rise. During the 12 months ending in June 2026, China exported approximately 23 GW of panels to the continent, approaching exports of around 23 GW to the Middle East and 25 GW to Latin America during the same period.

Around 94% of the solar panels installed in Africa are imported from China, while only 6% are manufactured locally, according to the report. The IDSC said that disparity creates an opportunity for African countries to develop domestic industries, deepen solar and storage value chains, and retain a larger share of the economic value generated by the energy transition.

The value of Africa’s solar panel imports from China reached approximately $2.4 billion in the 12 months ending in June 2026. The report estimated that producing an equivalent amount of electricity with diesel generators would require spending roughly the same amount on fuel every three months.

Battery imports have also gained ground. Since 2024, the value of batteries imported by African countries from China has exceeded that of solar panels, reflecting the growing role of electricity storage in supporting solar deployment.

Much of the continent’s recent expansion has come from distributed systems installed on homes and other buildings. These installations typically generate electricity for on-site consumption while remaining connected to public grids.

Distributed systems accounted for nearly three-quarters of the solar capacity added across Africa between 2023 and 2025, representing approximately 20 GW of the total 26 GW installed during that period. Falling panel prices and demand for more reliable electricity have accelerated adoption, particularly among commercial and industrial facilities whose daytime consumption aligns with solar generation.

In several countries, solar has become the largest single source of new power capacity. Between 2023 and 2026, Senegal is expected to add solar installations equivalent to about 80% of its total grid capacity in 2023. The DRC and Kenya are each projected to add capacity equivalent to more than half of their respective 2023 grid capacity.

However, Ember’s estimates reveal a gap between the pace of deployment and the capacity captured by official datasets. The organization estimates that Africa added around 12 GW of solar capacity in 2025, compared with estimates of 6.2 GW from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and 4.6 GW from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

The report attributed the discrepancy to differences in the coverage of distributed systems at homes and businesses, as well as the timing of data updates. It called for improved statistical systems to capture the sector’s growth and incorporate distributed installations more accurately into electricity-grid planning.

The solar systems projected to be installed in 2026 could generate approximately 23 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, equivalent to about 2.3% of Africa’s total electricity generation in 2024. The report said this output could cover the continent’s annual increase in electricity demand if growth remains near the 2.2% average recorded between 2014 and 2024.

Alongside capacity expansion, Africa’s solar panel production is expected to climb to approximately 3.5 GW in 2026, nearly four times its 2025 output. The increase will be supported by new factories in Egypt and Tanzania, which will primarily target export markets.

Egypt’s solar manufacturing activity covers cells and panels, with additional plans involving solar glass and frames. The IDSC said the emerging industrial base could help deepen local production, increase added value, reduce reliance on imports, and serve African and regional markets.

The center added that the accelerating rollout creates opportunities extending beyond electricity generation, particularly in manufacturing and storage. Realizing those opportunities will require more comprehensive data, expanded grid and storage capacity, and the integration of distributed generation into national energy plans.