EBRD lifts Egypt’s 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 4.8%

Updated 9/28/2025 8:16:00 AM

Arab Finance: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised its forecast for Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.8% in 2025, as per its latest Regional Economic Prospects report for September 2025.

This forecast has been upgraded by 0.8% since the EBRD's May 2025 report.

Citing macroeconomic stability and a gradual improvement in investor sentiment, the EBRD maintained its growth expectations for Egypt's GDP in 2026 at 4.5%.

As for fiscal year (FY) 2024/2025, the EBRD has upgraded the country's economic growth forecast by 0.7% to 4.5%, while projections remained the same at 4.4% for FY 2025/2026.

Egypt’s remittances hiked by 82.7% year-on-year (YoY) during July 2024 to March 2025, while foreign investors owned 44.7% of outstanding T-bills as of March 2025.

In the first seven months of 2025, annual inflation averaged 15.7%, which is half of the rate observed during the equivalent period in 2024.

Net international reserves stood at $49 billion in August 2025, the highest level in over 20 years. On the other hand, debt levels remain high, with servicing costs likely to absorb 65% of budget revenue in FY 2025/2026.

The report highlighted a recovery in the manufacturing sector as well as a strong performance in wholesale and retail trade and transport. Nonetheless, significant downside risks remain amid the escalation of regional conflicts.

Moreover, slow progress in structural reform could result in a further delay in the implementation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported reform program.