IMF adjusts Egypt’s primary balance surplus for FY2025/26 downward at 4% of GDP
Updated 7/16/2025 9:43:00 AM
Arab Finance: Egypt’s primary balance surplus, excluding divestment proceeds, is expected to reach 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year (FY) 2025/2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report.
The projection is 0.5% lower than the previous program commitments. However, the IMF projects the primary balance surplus to rise to 5% of GDP in FY 2026/2027.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to follow a downward trajectory. This is driven by primary surpluses being sustained, favorable interest-growth differentials persisting, and half of aggregate divestment inflows continue to be allocated to debt reduction.
The IMF commented: “The progress toward fiscal consolidation in the first half (H1) of FY2024/2025 was less strong than initially projected under the program despite strong growth in tax revenue collections.”
“The authorities are taking steps to contain spending in the second half of the fiscal year, to ensure that the end-year fiscal target for FY 2024/2025 is met,” the fund added.
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