The holy month of Ramadan holds a special significance in Egypt, both spiritually and economically. This year, Ramadan arrives amid a complex economic landscape, marked by a delicate balance between current and expected inflation rates.
As is customary, consumer spending surges during Ramadan, which raises crucial questions about what Egyptians prioritize and how they cope with potential price hikes.
Consumer Behavior During Ramadan
Egypt's annual inflation rate decreased slightly to 23.2% in January 2025, from 23.4% in December 2024, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). Food and beverage prices were the biggest contributor, rising 20.2% year-on-year (YoY). Meat and poultry prices increased by 22.3%, while vegetable prices rose by 10.5%.
On a monthly basis, inflation hit 1.6% in January, compared to 0.0% in the previous month. The consumer price index (CPI) reached 243.5 points.
As Ramadan draws near, prices of several products are affected by the spending spree driven by consumer behavior. Nouran ElKhouly, an economic analyst, tells Arab Finance: “As demand rises while supply remains constant, prices experience inflation due to temporary shortages.”
From a consumer’s point of view, Fatma, a 63-year-old housewife, says, “Price often increases before Ramadan, driven by market fluctuations. I recently paid EGP 270 for oranges, tangerines, lemons, and ginger, and Ramadan has not even begun. I hope prices stabilize somewhat after the month ends, But I doubt they will return to pre-Ramadan levels.”
Others, like Basma, a 32-year-old mother, tells Arab Finance: “Prices have already started to increase. Expecting further increases, I proactively stocked up on essential items before Ramadan. I purchased and froze meat and poultry to minimize market visits and ensure availability throughout the month.”
“While I got some 'Yameesh,' I bought less than the previous years. I also stocked up on non-perishable staples like sugar, oil, and rice in bulk. My strategy is to prioritize essential items and minimize unnecessary purchases,” she adds.
Basma further explains, “I buy essentials like dates for Iftar and try to make juice at home instead of buying ready-made. The goal is to adapt to the economic conditions while ensuring our children do not feel any pressure.”
Broader Sectoral Benefits During Ramadan
Ramadan greatly impacts several sectors in Egypt. The food and beverage industry sees a surge in demand due to Iftar and Suhoor meals, while the hospitality and restaurant sectors benefit from gatherings and special Ramadan menus.
ElKhouly notes, “Ramadan’s generosity extends beyond spiritual blessings as many sectors experience positive economic impact. Demand rises significantly in the food and beverage, tourism, and hospitality sectors with the increased festivities and gatherings.”
“Meanwhile, the media and entertainment industry see a surge in viewership and advertising, with brands capitalizing on increased audience engagement during Ramadan. Retailers also benefit from heightened demand for seasonal clothing trends, as consumers seek attire specifically suited for the holy month,” ElKhouly points out.
Restaurants owners, like Ossama, confirm this impact. “During Ramadan, our sales jump significantly by around 25%,” he tells Arab Finance.
To capitalize on this opportunity, his restaurant follows two strategies. “First, we run a community-focused program, offering affordable meals to low-income individuals through mosques and public areas, prioritizing outreach over profit. Second, we cater to the tradition of family gatherings with special 'Sawany' and family meal packages, meeting the increasing demand for restaurant catering during Ramadan,” Ossama clarifies.
Promoting Sustainable Consumption
Ramadan can be a challenging time for low-income households in Egypt due to rising food prices and social pressures to host guests. However, the Egyptian government is trying to ease this burden.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic food reserves to ensure sufficient supplies throughout Ramadan.
The country's strategic reserves are currently enough to cover six months of supply. The government directed efforts to provide essential goods at discounted prices, aiming to ease the financial burden on citizens during this time.
To support citizens, the government started opening the Ahlan Ramadan Fair across several governorates in January. The fair provides essential goods at affordable prices for citizens, in celebration of the holy month of Ramadan.
ElKhouly suggests that the government could implement price ceilings to prevent price gouging and introduce quotas for reserve goods to ensure market stability and avoid potential scarcities. Additionally, supporting local producers would help reduce reliance on imports, enhancing food security.
Beyond affordability, raising public awareness about excessive spending, overconsumption, and particularly food waste and its substantial negative environmental impact is crucial. This helps promote more sustainable consumption patterns, according to ElKhouly.
With increased awareness, people tend to reduce food waste. Fatma shares her experience: “Food waste has never been a concern for me. I have always been mindful of God's blessings, regardless of quantity, even before the current inflation. We carefully prepare meals in reasonable portions, and any leftovers are promptly distributed to those in need, ensuring they receive fresh and clean food.”
Ossama notes, “In our restaurant, we offer slightly imperfect but delicious and safe meals to those who request them, both during Ramadan and year-round. While our overall waste is minimal, about 1% of daily operations, we prioritize giving this food a second chance rather than discarding it.”
This Ramadan, Egypt navigates the interplay between tradition and economic reality. While rising prices and high demand pose challenges, individuals, businesses, and the government demonstrate adaptation and resilience.
As Egyptians embrace the spirit of Ramadan, they are committed to mindful consumption and community support, ensuring the holy month remains a time of both reflection and shared prosperity.
By Sarah Samir